▌ epl-betting-ai.md

# EPL Betting AI ## What Poisson model for English Premier League match predictions. Independent picks — not copying tipsters. Focus on draw value. ## Status Active — Sunday match predictions (final day of season May 24, 2026) ## Data - GitHub: github.com/ncik8/betting-ai - Location: `/Volumes/My Shared Files/UTM/betting-ai-repo/data/` - ~25 seasons: E0_9596 through E0_2324 - 106 columns: results, xG stats, bookmaker odds, corners, cards ## How It Works 1. Load last 3 seasons of data 2. Calculate team home/away xG (goals scored/conceded averages) 3. Expected goals = (home_team_home_xG + away_team_away_GA) / 2 4. Poisson distribution for score probabilities 5. Compare model probabilities vs Polymarket odds to find value ## Key Insight Polymarket consistently underprices draws by 8-12 percentage points vs historical average. Model finds value on draw in most games. ## Polymarket API - gamma-api.polymarket.com for live odds - CLOB (clob.polymarket.com) has historical settled markets only (2022-23 onwards) ## Draw Scorelines Model focuses on 0-0 and 1-1 draw scorelines specifically. Sunderland vs Chelsea: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-1 (12.7%) Burnley vs Wolves: 0-0 (8.2%), 1-1 (12.7%) Crystal Palace vs Arsenal: 1-1 (12.4%) ## Related - HKJC Betting AI: `/Volumes/My Shared Files/UTM/hkjc-betting/` (horse racing, separate) - Both use Poisson-based approach - Betting approach: truly independent from external tipsters