▌ hkjc-betting-may2026.md

# HKJC Horse Racing — May 2, 2026 ## Breakthrough - Nick said "think outside the box" for horse racing - Found @gikndue/hkjc-api npm package — FREE, no API key - HKJC GraphQL API at https://info.cld.hkjc.com/graphql/base/ - Works instantly — pulled 24 races across 4 meetings ## Project Built Location: /Volumes/My Shared Files/UTM/hkjc-betting/ ### Pipeline fetch_hkjc.js → features.py → predict.py → track.py → run_daily.py ### Data Available - Race cards with all runners - International ratings, current ratings - Last 6 race placings - Barrier draws, handicap weights - Jockey names, trainer names - Gear (tongue ties, visors etc) - Distance, class, track type - Pool data (WIN/PLA/QIN/QPL/Dbl/Tri etc) ### Prediction Model Composite score per horse: - 30% international rating - 30% avg placing (from last6) - 15% top-3 consistency ratio - 15% barrier draw (lower = better) - 10% weight carried ### Backtest Results (PL data — 26 seasons, 9880 matches) - Form model accuracy: 46.3% (random baseline 33%) - Combined model accuracy: 47.9% - Edge threshold is KEY: - edge 0.15 → 56% win rate - edge 0.20 → 60% win rate - Bet selectively, not everything ### Gap - HKJC API only has future races - No historical results yet - Need to track predictions over time ### Cron Job - ID: 67508c925214 - Daily 7AM - Fetches → predicts → sends to Telegram → tracks vs actuals